Thomas Friedman is a smart person. From his recent interview with Patrick Healy (produced by Jillian Weinberger), some wise bumper stickers — generally applicable to human events, far beyond the current geopolitical situation:

• change — "... the game board sometimes really does need to be shaken up ..."
• stupidity — "... the single most underestimated force in international relations is actually stupidity ..."
• feedback — "... In a low information system where no one wants to tell the top guy the truth [...] little bad news ever gets to the guy at the top. ... Low information systems are always dangerous. They’re particularly dangerous in a world where we have rapid change. ..."
• physics — "... I’ve kind of given up on politics ... I’m now entirely betting on physics, on the hard realities of things. ... When the politicians responsible for being buffers don’t do their jobs, all I’ve got left Newton and the third law of motion: For every action, there will be an equal and opposite reaction. That’s all I’ve got left. ... I’ve pretty much given up on politics, but I do believe in the laws of gravity. The apple actually did fall from the tree. It didn’t jump from the ground into the tree. And eventually, the laws of gravity will make themselves felt. ..."

In a nutshell: excellent big-picture systems thinking and modeling!

_{(cf Tilt Theory of History (2004-06-01), Study Offsets (2007-07-08), In Favor of Both (2020-11-27), Upside Surprises (2021-02-22), ...) - ^z - 2025-02-20}